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ACCCIM Malaysia's Business and Economic Conditions Survey (M-BECS) Report 1H 2023 and 1H 2023F

To view full report and presentation slides, please follow the link below:

https://www.acccimserc.com/research/m-becs1h20232h2023f

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The Associated Chinese Chambers of Commerce and Industry of Malaysia’s (ACCCIM) Malaysia’s Business and Economic Conditions Survey (M-BECS) was conducted from 27 April and 14 July 2023, covering the first half-year of 2023 (Jan-Jun 2023) and expectations for the second half-year of 2023 (Jul-Dec 2023), has received 692 responses.

The survey is a good barometer to gauge Malaysian Chinese business community’s assessment and expectations about domestic business and economic conditions as well as their prospects.

It covers questions to measure expectations about the prospects of economic and business performance; the main factors affecting business performance; and to gauge the implications of current issues and challenges faced by businesses.

This survey report is collaborated with and prepared by Socio-Economic Research Centre (SERC).

For news coverage, please proceed to Activity page.
https://www.acccimserc.com/activities/activity-20230802

A. WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK UPDATE

GLOBAL OUTLOOK REMAINS WEIGHED DOWN BY PERSISTENT CORE INFLATION AND HIGHER INTEREST RATES

• Global economic growth remains weak but not as bad as feared. Advanced economies show growth supported by domestic demand and labor market conditions, but geopolitical uncertainties, high inflation, higher interest rates, and climate change continue to pose risks.

• High-frequency data indicates slowing global economic growth.

• The US economy remains resilient in 2Q 2023 underpinned by strong labour market conditions and continued wage growth.

• The euro area grew marginally by 0.3% QoQ in 2Q. Rising interest rates, high inflation albeit moderating, and global headwinds continue to challenge economic momentum in 2Q.

• Japan’s economy will continue to expand due to recovering consumer spending (benefitting from easing of pandemic restrictions) and private non-residential investment.

• China's GDP growth picks up due to a favorable base effect, but underlying momentum is slowing, and youth unemployment remains a concern.

• Headline inflation is ebbing, but core inflation remains a focus, with tight labor markets pressuring services prices.

• The global monetary tightening cycle is slowing, and inflation trends will determine central bank policy moves.

B. MALAYSIA ECONOMIC OUTLOOK UPDATE 

SLOWER GROWTH IN 2H 2023

• After a spectacular growth of 8.7% in 2022, the Malaysian economy has normalised, growing at a sustainable rate of 5.6% yoy in 1Q 2023, driven mainly by domestic demand.

• GDP growth to average 4.0%-5.0% in 2H 2023. Our tracking of high-frequency data has shown that the Malaysian economy has moderated in recent months, especially demand for our exports while consumer spending has normalised.

• Manufacturing sales growth has moderated, while distributive trade continues to expand, supported by retail sales and potential tourism recovery.

• Exports declined, and the banking sector's outstanding loan growth softened.

• Headline inflation has eased, but food and services inflation remains high, leading to consumers tightening discretionary spending.

• Private investment growth has slowed, but there are catalysts for investment, such as high investment approvals and ongoing public infrastructure projects.

• Bank Negara Malaysia is expected to keep the overnight policy rate unchanged at 3.00% in 2023, considering global growth concerns, moderating domestic economic growth, and easing inflation. However, renewed inflation pressure may lead to further rate hikes if economic growth remains steady.

Please click the box below to download the full report and presentation slides:

SERC Media Briefing on Quarterly Economy Tracker (Apr-Jun 2023)

To view Executive Summary of QET, please follow the link below:

2023Q2: Sustaining Economic Resilience Amid Persistent Challenges

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Please click the box below to download the full report and presentation slides:

THE STAR

• On 27 July 2023, the Prime Minister of Malaysia launched a 10-year period economic narrative framework, “Ekonomi MADANI: Memperkasa Rakyat” which aims at reconstructing and re-engineering Malaysia to become a highly competitive, sustainable, and resilient economy.  

• The framework navigates our desired economic development path (mission, execution, and targets) as well as offers clarity on what we aim to achieve; what are the broad strategies and enablers to get there from where we are now.

• It includes seven (7) intermediate indicators as medium-term targets to be achieved within 10 years.

   

THE STAR