星洲日报

星洲日报

The Star

The Star

SERC Media Briefing on Quarterly Economy Tracker (Apr-Jun 2024)

To view the Executive Summary of QET, please follow the link below:

2024Q2: Domestic Economy Remains on the Expansion Path

Related news:

1. (a) 中总：落实RON95针对性补贴 料政府会观察半年
   (b) RON95补贴措施何时落实？中总：政府或再观察6个月
   星洲日报
    
2. (a) 国内需求和出口好转　今年上半年经济预估增长5.0%
   (b) 尽管通膨稳定　家庭和企业成本仍有压力
   东方日报
    
3. 今年来唯一升值亚币 令吉汇率还能升更多
   中国报
    
4. Strong 2H24 growth on the cards
   The Star
    
5. Malaysia will weather mild US recession but risks aplenty — SERC
   The Edge

For news coverage, please proceed to Activity page.
https://www.acccimserc.com/activities/activity-20240808

A. WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK UPDATE

GLOBAL ECONOMY IS GROWING BUT RISKS STILL PREVALENT

• Global growth stays on the path. The lead indicators show continued and steady global growth in 2H 2024, supported by continued resilient labour markets and moderating inflation in some advanced economies, especially the US economy as well as a recovery in global trade, and exports on the back of an upturn in global technology cycle.
   
• Growth divergent in advanced economies. The US economy remains on a soft-landing path amid fears of recession risk on the back of disappointing July’s jobs data and the contraction of the ISM manufacturing in July for the fourth consecutive month. Headline inflation continues to ease closer to the Fed’s comfort zone. Economic and business activities in the euro area still growing unevenly amid stable unemployment rate and a marked improvement in inflation. In Japan, after registering a surprise economic contraction in Q1 2024, due to a temporary supply disruption linked to a major automobile plant, a modest turnaround in growth in 2H is expected, driven by stronger wage growth and consumer spending. The China economy unexpectedly slower than expected in Q2 2024, due to weak consumer spending while the property crisis continued to be a major drag. We expect the authorities to roll out support measures to stabilise growth in 2H 2024.
   
• Inflation has finally been tamed, with lower interest rates to follow. Global disinflation is a common theme, albeit the pace is slowing. Stubborn services and wage inflation resulted in bumps in path to lower inflation.

B. MALAYSIA ECONOMIC OUTLOOK UPDATE 

DOMESTIC ECONOMY REMAINS ON THE EXPANSION PATH

• The Malaysian economy grew by estimated 5.0% in 1H 2024. The Malaysian economy sustained its expansion, underpinned by continued domestic demand and a turnaround in exports. Advanced estimates (based on April and May data) showed that real GDP expanded higher by 5.8% yoy in Q2 (4.2% in Q1), taking average growth to 5.0% in 1H 2024. This is better than market expectations.
   
• High frequency indicators point towards sustaining positive direction. In Apr-May, industrial production grew further by 4.2% yoy (3.3% in Q1), and the manufacturing output expanded by 4.8% (2.1% in Q1), leading to higher manufacturing sales growth of 5.6% (1.8% in Q1). The wholesale and retail trade growth also advanced further to 6.8% (5.4% in Q1). In the external sector, gross exports expanded by 5.8% in Q2 (2.0% in Q1), while imports of intermediate goods and capital goods increased strongly by 28.7% and 24.0%, respectively, in 1H 2024, indicating a robust private investment and production ahead.
   
• Economic momentum to continue in 2H 2024. We expect sustained higher growth in the manufacturing, services and construction sectors. Overall exports are expected to gain strong traction in 2H (+3.9% yoy in 1H 2024).

Focus Malaysia

The Associated Chinese Chambers of Commerce and Industry of Malaysia’s (ACCCIM) Malaysia’s Business and Economic Conditions Survey (M-BECS) was conducted from 8 May 2024 and 17 July 2024, covering the first half-year of 2024 (Jan-Jun 2024) and expectations for the second half-year of 2024 (Jul-Dec 2024), has received 661 responses.

The survey is a good barometer to gauge Malaysian Chinese business community’s assessment and expectations about domestic business and economic conditions as well as their prospects.

It covers questions to measure expectations about the prospects of economic and business performance; the main factors affecting business performance; and to gauge the implications of current issues and challenges faced by businesses.

This survey report is collaborated with and prepared by the Socio-Economic Research Centre (SERC).

Related news:

1. ACCCIM: Chinese business owners in Malaysia have mixed sentiment for 2024
   The Malaysian Reserve
    
2. Businesses cautious on prospects with ringgit moves, increase in costs as key concerns
   New Straits Times
    
3. (i) 中总商业和经济状况调查报告　企业对2024年看法褒贬不一
   (ii) 尽管通膨稳定　家庭和企业成本仍有压力
   东方日报
    
4. 中总商业和经济状况调查 | 中小微企对经济商业看法 今年谨慎 明年看好
   星洲日报
    
5. 中总:逾70%大马企业预警 “下半年成本或续走高”
   南洋商报
    
6. 中总：商业与经济状况调查 63.1企业持中和态度
   光华日报
    
7. 原料价格上升 政策变动 70%企业料下半年成本再涨
   中国报

南洋商报

Focus Malaysia